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News You Can Use 12/21/00
The
Road Ahead
Have you ever driven down a road and
could see off in the distance where the road continues, maybe
where it goes through a pass or where it is cut into a hillside?
You could almost reach out and touch where the road continues,
but as you travel forward you find that it still took some time
to get to that mountain pass. The road may have been perfectly
smooth getting to the point you could see ahead, but more likely
you went around curves and up and down some hills before you got
there. And when you finally reached that higher level maybe you
stopped to take in the vista. The view was nice. The curves and
hills you had to traverse seem small in comparison to where you
ended up. That's what the market is like. We know we've gone
from extremely high levels earlier in the year to what can only
be described as extremely low levels as the year ends. What
if you'd come to that first small hill and stopped? Or what if
you came to that first curve and didn't want to put out the effort
to turn the steering wheel? These are rhetorical questions. The
answer is obvious. You would have stopped at that point in
your trip and never reached the mountain pass or plateau that
laid ahead. You would have stayed in the low lands and not enjoyed
the dramatic vistas that lay just ahead.
You are intelligent. You see the parallel.
The markets are at extreme levels to the downside but it is not
time to get out of the game. Over the past 15 years it's been
virtually impossible to buy at a market TOP and not have the market
higher at some point over the next two years. And that was
at market tops! If the market has moved higher from market tops
where do you think it will move now that we're sitting at or near
a market bottom? Baby-boomers WILL continue to need to fund their
retirement accounts. The Bush administration WILL give Social
Security funds some limited access to the stock market. Technology,
telecommunications, and the Internet WILL expand its influence
on our lives with new products businesses and consumers WILL buy
to replace current technology. Biotechnology WILL find new
cures and drugs to make our lives healthier. Setting aside emotion,
the odds are excellent that the market will spend better than
50-75% of the next two years higher than current levels. The odds
are that two years from now you'll be able to look back and see
that this was one of those rare opportunities to BUY stocks at
prices that were incredibly cheap compared to levels two years
from now. A well-diversified portfolio of stocks in growing
industries, with good financials, products, and management should
have significant gains from current levels.
QUOTE:
"The secret
of success is
there is no secret of success."
- Elbert Hubbard
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